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(AsiaGameHub) –   New Jersey plans to carry its dispute with Kalshi to the Supreme Court. The state played a decisive role in clearing the way for nationwide sports betting legalization and could again prompt a landmark ruling on sports prediction markets.

A joint status report submitted by attorneys for Kalshi and New Jersey asked the court to refrain from further rulings while awaiting the Supreme Court’s decision.

“Defendants have indicated that they intend to seek further review of the Third Circuit’s decision in the U.S. Supreme Court,” the filing stated. “The parties therefore respectfully request that this Court continue to stay proceedings pending any decision by the U.S. Supreme Court.”

The Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 that Kalshi was likely to succeed, finding that federal law preempts state gambling regulations and renders its sports markets lawful. The dissenting judge concluded that “[b]ecause Kalshi is facilitating gambling, it can be subjected to state regulation.”

How Will Supreme Court Rule?

Legal experts have long anticipated that the Supreme Court will eventually decide whether sports prediction markets may continue.

Daniel Wallach, a prominent voice in numerous legal disputes between prediction market operators and state gambling regulators, estimated a 70–80% chance that the Supreme Court will rule against prediction markets.

Kayvan Sadeghi, a partner at Jenner & Block in New York, agreed. He noted that although the Trump administration and some Republicans support prediction markets, conservative judges often favor states’ rights arguments. With the Supreme Court’s majority leaning conservative, this would advantage gambling regulators.

Law professor Melinda Roth told us she sees the outcome as closer to 50-50.

The Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling permitting states to legalize sports betting could be influential. In that case, the Court held that the federal prohibition on sports betting was unconstitutional and that states may determine whether to allow the activity.

When Will Supreme Court Hear The Case?

It took years of effort for the sports betting case to reach the Supreme Court. Initially, judges rejected the state’s argument that the federal ban on sports betting was unconstitutional.

The Third Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed the earlier rulings in a 2-1 split decision, as it did in the Kalshi case in New Jersey, concluding that federal law preempts state regulation.

The Supreme Court declined to hear the case in 2014, but Governor Chris Christie persisted and petitioned for review in 2016. The Court eventually agreed in 2017 and issued its definitive ruling in 2018.

Kalshi filed its lawsuit against New Jersey authorities in April of last year after receiving a cease-and-desist letter. As the PASPA case illustrates, such complex disputes can take many years to resolve.

Roth said she believes at least another year will pass before the Supreme Court hears the case, and she added that the sports betting ruling “doesn’t necessarily indicate how they will rule here.”

At a hearing before the Ninth Circuit, judges appeared to favor the state of Nevada’s arguments over those of Kalshi. A ruling is expected in the coming weeks. If the outcome favors the state, it would create a circuit split, potentially accelerating the case to the Supreme Court.

Polymarket Offers Wagering On Timeline

Polymarket, like most platforms, has a market on when the Supreme Court will take a sports event contract case. It currently assigns an 18% chance that the Court will accept a case by year’s end.

There is no market on how the Court will rule, but one could follow if it accepts the case. Whether it can continue offering markets on everything will likely depend on the outcome.