臺北新聞熱綫

(AsiaGameHub) –   Survivor host Jeff Probst issued an apology this week after accidentally revealing a portion of the season finale. He disclosed that a contestant would leave the show prior to the official announcement. For numerous viewers, the outcome was already known—Kalshi’s markets for the pre-recorded series had essentially determined the winner seven months earlier.

Kalshi, while confirming it’s investigating insider trading on these markets, maintained that it’s more probable users were just making online guesses about the results.

Robert Denault, Kalshi’s Head of Enforcement, shared on X: “We continue to investigate insider trading in Survivor markets, but the below still holds true: so far, no traders with large positions seem to have a relationship to the show or to the network. Thousands of traders took early positions aligning with the final result, likely because of public rumors. And public rumors don’t equal insider information.”

Users Challenge Kalshi Assertion

An X user challenged Kalshi’s claim that insiders weren’t involved in the trading.

The evidence we’ve reviewed led us to the subreddit “SpoiledSurvivor” (which has 71k weekly visitors). A Redditor who has successfully predicted the outcome of the last few Survivor seasons made a post 7 months ago (before Kalshi’s Survivor market was even live) claiming Aubry…

— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) May 21, 2026

Denault stated the trading probably originated from members of the “SpoiledSurvivor” subreddit, where the user ‘lifetimerobot’ predicted Aubry would win seven months ago. Reddit posts indicate this user has correctly foreseen the winner in three prior seasons.

“They’re shifting blame to lifetimerobot instead of the clear insiders active in that market,” one user commented.

Other users echoed this sentiment, firmly convinced insider trading was occurring on Kalshi.

“There is obviously insider trading,” another user wrote. “Cirie never had the same level of support on Kalshi as she did in this subreddit. And let’s not even talk about the episode-specific spikes in insider trading for eliminations after screeners were released.”

From the moment Kalshi’s market launched, Aubry—who went on to win—had an overwhelming probability of taking the title.

Cirie, whom users say had strong backing in the subreddit, did get some support on Kalshi’s market. Her winning odds climbed above 20% last month but dropped again as the season neared its end.

Episode Market Flip Points Against Insider Trading

All told, more than $32 million was traded on the winner market. Kalshi also provided markets for weekly eliminations, which typically forecasted who would be voted off correctly.

The company pointed out, though, that in episode 11, Cirie—originally expected to be eliminated—stayed. A day before the episode aired, the market gave Cirie an 80% chance of leaving, but the odds shifted drastically right before the episode where Ozzy and Emily were sent home.

More than $870,000 was traded on that market. The sudden change in odds implies insiders weren’t placing bets here—at least not until the episode’s air date. It’s also possible some insiders only received the information the day the show was broadcast.

Minnesota Bans Markets, CFTC Defends With Lawsuit

Survivor contestants are required to sign strict Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) that bar them from sharing in-game outcomes, cast details, or filming information—with possible penalties of up to $5 million.

But since the show is filmed well ahead of its air date, leaks are always a possibility. A team of lawyers told the New York Times that it would likely be legal for someone to bet on the markets even if their neighbor was a contestant who’d recently purchased a new sports car—so long as the contestant didn’t directly share that they’d won.

Several lawmakers want to limit these markets, including Minnesota, which recently prohibited betting on entertainment event contracts, along with sports and other types of markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against the state, claiming Minnesota is overstepping its authority by trying to regulate a federally licensed exchange. The CFTC specifically took issue with the state’s ban on weather-related markets, which it argues are critical for farmers to hedge against risks.

Members of Congress have also proposed legislation to ban betting on markets where outcomes are already determined. Sen. Chris Murphy, one of the sponsors of the BETS OFF Act, stated: “Any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption”.

It’s still uncertain whether Survivor markets were manipulated by insiders or if, as Kalshi claims, online speculation was the driving force behind the trades.